Monday, April 23, 2012

A Long May

I had an article in the start of this month titled, "A Long April" in respect to precious metal prices not surging even though the world's Central Banks continue to keep rates low, and currencie flying out of the presses.  One thing about watching trends is that it is important to readjust one's views as to where the trend is going in the future.  Since that is the case, I am going to readjust my projections for May and June, and I am going to really slow the roll of precious metals, until a big move up, which I now see happening in July.

In "A Long April" I thought gold would get to $1735 by the end of the month and silver would be at $35.  Not only do I not think these two will get there in May, it will take June to reach these numbers.  May should finish at $1680, and silver at $33.  I think this because I see stocks having a bad May, and I don't think there will be much investment made into anything; I think all markets will stay in somewhet of a holding pattern as I think that trading is pretty much dead.  I don't think people will move to cash in this environment, as people want something for their investment, but I do think stocks will move down (DJ to 12,225), so maybe cash drips into bonds.

During May, I think JPM et al will continue to suppress the metals.  The PTB have a fresh $430B thanks to LaGarde to maintain "stability", yet this really isn't much,and should only kick the can about two months.  It appears that suppressing PMs is one of the most important things for the PTB.  Maybe because they want to shake out the weak hands so they can accumulate as much as possible.  Maybe there are other reasons.  Who knows what is in the minds of these mad men.

As for July, I think we break this range we have been trapped in for nearly a year, but we will have to see when we get there.  I still see all CBs printing, but even if they don't gold is the best hedge, for if rates rise, what will be the best investment?  Not bonds; why hold cash?  Stocks?  Gold is going to continue to be the best investment for the foreseeable future, as it has for the last decade.

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