Sunday, September 25, 2011

A Capitulating System

What we are witnessing is the death throes of the financial system.  It is in full capitulation.  There is a big move coming up, and everyone is going to have to pick a side, because there will be no middle ground.

The strict deflationist camp says that all prices are going down, and capital will move into USTs and dollars.  This is the typical scenario concerning deflation for the last umpteen years. 

The strict inflationists point to the money printing of the central banks, and say prices are going to rise.  Inflation will be the Fed's main concern and they will keep their target come hell or high water.

Stagflation is also a worry.  Here, the concern is that prices will rise, but that wages will not keep pace.  This has been the scenario so far, albeit without the proper inflation numbers.  Using oil in the CPI, inflation is much higher than the US government is saying.

All of these scenarios are likely, and in fact, all will occur.  That is why the system is dying; it is pricing all of this in at once.  Once the system realizes the dire straights, it will finally roll over.  Anything could happen to equities, but concerning the dollar and USTs, I don't think they are the safe haven the once were.  Maybe they do not go into hyperflation, but they should not be the only safe play.  Precious metals will keep that hedge.

With oil production peaking, oil will not fall much, and this too will keep a lid on the dollar, since they trade inversely.  This scenario is bullish for silver, as silver trades with oil, and with gold.

In all likelihood, the system is set to fail, and I am not sure how much longer it can be propped up.  What matters is what new policies arise.  If money printing continues at its breakneck pace, inflation will take the lead.  If not, the massive deflation hitting real estate etc could take down equities.  I would also not be surprised if stagflation ruled for a few months while politicians and policy makers messed around.


  1. Hi Lennon,

    Is your confidence in platinum still there? As I write this platinum is down $36 in early trading and that scares me. I saw car sales for August came in strong, which I figured could help platinum's price but no go. Any thoughts on platinum and where its going.



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  3. Platinum had the same down move as her sister metals. They trade together. I think industrial demand is still high for the metals, and I think that what we are witnessing is the paper price decoupling from the physical. I would not be surprised if there was a physical short squeeze on all three PMs soon.