There are reports of silver shortages this week. The first and most important is that the US Mint will not be shipping Eagles next week, this after record buying in 2012 and 2011. The US Mint should be the most powerful mint in the world and for them to cut shipments, even for a week, is a harbinger of things to come.
The next report is that industrial silver is seeing a shortage. This was the goal of the "Buy Silver" movement and if we achieve our goal then we could see a crisis occur in the Fiat Ponzi that will be unprecedented.
In some order we don't know i) shorts will get stopped out, exacerbating the up move and rendering the derivative part of the suppression scheme useless ii) the COMEX, which has been defaulting on delivery for years, will default even more so, sending paper to buyers who seek physical iii) the dollar will falter as the reserve currency, rendering the MIC complex marooned and the debt worthless iv) industrial supplies will have problems until miners unshelf some reserves.
Yet at what price will miners, who have already seen production plateau, release reserves?
We need to look at the last big more for silver, the move from $20 to $50, to know what the next big move holds. While price is rising miners will hold their breath hoping to sell the top. So if we start the move here, at $30, we should see a top of $75 looking just right for those hoping to take profit in silver.
Putting a time frame on this move is difficult, but once again history will be our guide. It took silver about 6 months to move from $20 to $50. This next big move should fall in a similar line.
Prognosticating is all fun and games, but remember that silver will be rising in part due to weakening fiat. This means will and other commodities will be rising. This will be a very exciting but also frightening time. Having silver will help one preserve one's wealth, but in the coming months there will be other things more important to get in order.
For topically relevant reading from this blogroll see -
"The Looming Shortages", October 24th, 2012: