The markets are on a collision course with chaotic developments. Many of the factors are uncontrollable on a long enough timeline - peak oil, peak debt, natural disasters like Fukashima, the sell off of production to other States by corporations and the unemployment disaster. All of this is coming to a head, and right now.
What can apparently be controlled is the debt, as long as all States of the world agree to kick the can, which I think they will. I think there is a pseudo-economic war happening. I think that China, the US, and Europe only have one agenda - can kicking. If Fukashima was shown to increase cancer rates, and Japan imploded economically, that would be an excuse, or rather a trigger, to kill off the Fiat Ponzi and try to start the New World Order. If it came down to it, a war with Iran could be the flashpoint, but by no means will the policy makers make Keynesian policy the fall guy. I thought they would for a long time, but I don't think they will now, because if they do then people may wonder if the people at the top know what they are doing.
Based on the House of Saud's empty promises, and how Europe is epically kicking the can, along with the US lying about every data point out there and China pretending like it isn't rolling over shows that they will go to any length to kick the can. So now we have to wait for a flash point.
Yet waiting is pathetic, so that is why we take precautions. I will be preaching to the choir, but silver will be a great means of an exchange. Gold is the ultimate. Personally I think a library of paper books is tops on the list. Food and water are of course number one.
And I don't think society will go into a Mad Max scenario, for long anyway. I think there will be a few weeks where food and oil are not shipped in. I think it will take a few months for governments to be restarted on a local level. But I think we will get it together pretty quickly. I have no fear of the government because I think they are inept, and I think people will band together.
How long until this happens? I don't know how it could the Fiat Ponzi can last for longer than another year, but who knows. I see major turmoil hitting the markets after the Europonzi goes into overdrive starting later this month. I think the oil markets are already pointing to the turmoil. I think we hit a turning point later this month and another spiral starts, lasting for many moons. Where and when this ends, and where the next phase begins, I can't say, but we are on a collision course with inevitable forces, and they are on the horizon.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
The Break
The current charts are pointing towards conflicting trends. Oil looks like it is about to pullback, but the dollar looks like it is about to break down. Of course, for anyone following Europe's charade, it looks like the Zone is about to crumble, which could leave the currencie in the dust, which would be bullish for the dollar. PMs look poised for a breakout again, and equity is overbought, but USTs are so expensive we have to say they are a bubble. All systems appear leveraged; yet PMs are currently cheap in real terms (opposed to nominal price). If there is one thing that all this points to it's that the system is once again at a turning point.
The next turn should see a big move. There is too much on the line this time for anything less than a strong move. If I had to guess, it will be like a bomb hitting the currencie markets, and the wave should carry over to the bond, equity, and commodity markets. A European failure, a cascade of volatility into the American markets, and since the US isn't in a better position its markets should be roiled, and Asia should fall flat on its face too. The solution will be to unleash more and more cash to quell the storm, but there is a point where it will all be washed up. The wave looks to be breaking.
The next turn should see a big move. There is too much on the line this time for anything less than a strong move. If I had to guess, it will be like a bomb hitting the currencie markets, and the wave should carry over to the bond, equity, and commodity markets. A European failure, a cascade of volatility into the American markets, and since the US isn't in a better position its markets should be roiled, and Asia should fall flat on its face too. The solution will be to unleash more and more cash to quell the storm, but there is a point where it will all be washed up. The wave looks to be breaking.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Bailouts Forever
There are two things that I am going to discuss today. One is the $1.6 billion stolen by MF Global that may fund the Greek bailout, and the other is how the Foreclosure Settlement that Obama's AGs made and how the Fed will buy all of the MBS from the banks to give them the cash for the settlement. These two things are front and center for the ongoing bailouts of the Fiat Ponzi.
For awhile it was reported that MF Global had lost, or rather stolen, $1.2 billion from its clients. The number now being reported is $1.6. Isn't it interesting that once that number is fractionally reserved, it becomes $14 billion, the same number of debt that will be rolled by Greece. Is it possible that the dollars transferred to JPM are going to be used to roll Greek's debt?
The Foreclosure Settlement is another backdoor deal for the Fed to bail out banks. It is being done now while the MBS is still of value so that the banks get some bang for their buck. The housing market is set to have another leg down, one that will see the values get cut in half once again (as housing has already lost half of its value). Bernanke has shown his hand as he said housing is, "No longer a safe investment." He said that because his next QE, the QE that is ongoing and has never stopped, will be to buy up the MBS market.
The plan is for the Fed to own an overwhelming amount of debt. They will soon own one third of all Treasurie debt, as the indirect owners (foreign owners) have been dumping USTs en masse since November. Now they will begin to buy MBS like it is going out of style.Their book will reach the proportion of Europe's. Combined the balance sheets are around $15 trillion.
The Fiat Ponzi has leveraged itself beyond imagine. The only thing it has going for itself is that the massive inflation that is being programmed with binary code is being met with a collapsing housing market. Soon things that were thought to have value will only have value based on inflated debt numbers. Soon a meal will cost ten dollars per head, a gallon of gas will be $5, but the house one has slaved one's life away for will have half of the value it did seven years ago. The people's wealth has been looted. Does anyone really care?
For awhile it was reported that MF Global had lost, or rather stolen, $1.2 billion from its clients. The number now being reported is $1.6. Isn't it interesting that once that number is fractionally reserved, it becomes $14 billion, the same number of debt that will be rolled by Greece. Is it possible that the dollars transferred to JPM are going to be used to roll Greek's debt?
The Foreclosure Settlement is another backdoor deal for the Fed to bail out banks. It is being done now while the MBS is still of value so that the banks get some bang for their buck. The housing market is set to have another leg down, one that will see the values get cut in half once again (as housing has already lost half of its value). Bernanke has shown his hand as he said housing is, "No longer a safe investment." He said that because his next QE, the QE that is ongoing and has never stopped, will be to buy up the MBS market.
The plan is for the Fed to own an overwhelming amount of debt. They will soon own one third of all Treasurie debt, as the indirect owners (foreign owners) have been dumping USTs en masse since November. Now they will begin to buy MBS like it is going out of style.Their book will reach the proportion of Europe's. Combined the balance sheets are around $15 trillion.
The Fiat Ponzi has leveraged itself beyond imagine. The only thing it has going for itself is that the massive inflation that is being programmed with binary code is being met with a collapsing housing market. Soon things that were thought to have value will only have value based on inflated debt numbers. Soon a meal will cost ten dollars per head, a gallon of gas will be $5, but the house one has slaved one's life away for will have half of the value it did seven years ago. The people's wealth has been looted. Does anyone really care?
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