Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The Break

The current charts are pointing towards conflicting trends.  Oil looks like it is about to pullback, but the dollar looks like it is about to break down.  Of course, for anyone following Europe's charade, it looks like the Zone is about to crumble, which could leave the currencie in the dust, which would be bullish for the dollar.  PMs look poised for a breakout again, and equity is overbought, but USTs are so expensive we have to say they are a bubble.  All systems appear leveraged; yet PMs are currently cheap in real terms (opposed to nominal price).  If there is one thing that all this points to it's that the system is once again at a turning point.

The next turn should see a big move.  There is too much on the line this time for anything less than a strong move.  If I had to guess, it will be like a bomb hitting the currencie markets, and the wave should carry over to the bond, equity, and commodity markets.  A European failure, a cascade of volatility into the American markets, and since the US isn't in a better position its markets should be roiled, and Asia should fall flat on its face too.  The solution will be to unleash more and more cash to quell the storm, but there is a point where it will all be washed up.  The wave looks to be breaking.

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