Saturday, January 7, 2012

Tehran's Bank Run

Yesterday there was a piece by Art Cashin that described an ongoing bank run out of Iran.  This is the main reason for the embrago.  If oil was the concern, then the Banking Establishment would have lowered US stock markets and inflated the dollar that way, instead of inflating the dollar by the embargo. 

Iran is in a catch 22.  Higher oil means more revenue, but less sales (especially considering the embargo).  Lower oil prices would have meant less revenue, but the would have had more sales.  The kicker lies that people are pulling their money out of the local currencie, and seeking dollars (and rubles, yuan, etc).  This is how the US wants to make Iran be the aggressor.

The people of Iran will panic, then the government will as well, and then they will retaliate.  Or there will be a false flag.  Either way, Iran is scapegoated and after being bled.

Look for the devaluation of the currencie to continue.  Look for it to have lost 40% of its value by the end of January, at which point Iran will be in a state of turmoil.  February will be a hard month for Iran, and by the Spring equinox they will be about spent. 

The most interesting correlation last weak was the strong dollar correlation across the board.  I was wondering why there was a strong dollar against all currencie, and how the equity market stayed flat.  It was money coming in from the embargo.  It will be interesting if China and Russia go along with it, or fight it.  You would think, because of the SCO, they would go against it, but geo-politics is a tricky thing to guess about.  All I know is the world will be inflames in a couple months, I don't know who will take who's side.

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