It will be a short and quick one, but it will cause a panic. It will remind everyone, even bulls, that the "recovery" is "fragile", and this at the least. It is the depression that never was; the greatest depression never discussed. Once it is known by the public, it will be too late.
The pullback will wash the Dow once again. The Dow failed to hit its recent high, and will now run through the 12K range. But Bernanke will have some ammunition dry; still the world thinks that QE 3 has not been initiated- it has, but in a Light form. The Light will be turned on for a third time, and the debt will be monetized massively.
Obama is doing everything he can to put buffers on the economy: He is letting everyone unemployed live in their homes free from their mortgage for another year. How this is legal, well, Obama does not know the law.
The Military Industrial Complex is still in full swing for the time being, and this is making the Major Banks money hand over fist. How long oil will be cheap enough to run the war machine, time will tell. Oil will likely be the end all of the fiat ponzi.
This, but the US debt is still not solved. If the debt ceiling is raised, finance will be walking dead once again, but with a very inflationary twist. If not, public pensions will not be securitized, and the unfunded Social Security Trust Fund will be no more. There is no solution to any problem, except for one.
When all of this hits the proverbial fan, gold will be sought over all other assets. This will, in the least, double demand, and since supply has been lessening since 2000, price will sky rocket. All of this comes to a head by August. What is in store is right around the corner.