Saturday, April 23, 2011

Swan Lake: Africa

Although not a true Black Swan, as many knew higher food prices were coming due to 1) speculation on a weaker dollar, ii) a weaker dollar itself as the falling worth of the said dollar increases input costs, iii) crop failures, and  iv) peak oil, the African Black Swan has surprised many, because most people (and this is the criteria I will be using to define a Black Swan because, as an example, some people, though very few, knew that major earthquakes were coming) were not aware that higher food prices would soon descend on the world.

Food prices have great volatility due to crop failures and the like, which is why neo-Keynesian economics does not include them with core inflation.  The price may go up one year on oranges if a large crop freezes over, but it is not every year that nature ruins a particular crop, and the weather never kills all foods.  So then the reigning economic theory has a fair enough assessment to not weight core inflation heavily with food prices, but it would be best to have a weight, even small, for food in the core inflation index, as food is a good and does experience inflation.

Crop failure has played a role in rising food costs, but not much more than any other year.  Wheat had a bad year, oranges too, but plenty of crops came in line.  The biggest worry to crop failure is honey bees not pollinating, and this is last on the list for even the hippie agenda.  When the ever decreasing population of honey bees is addressed, and that would mean taking down cell phone towers, then control over the natural element will be controlled to the best of our abilities.

As for speculation, well, it is in the nature of finance to speculate, and the finance world would have to be rebuilt from the bottom on up to create less tension there.  There is an unfair advantage for the wealthy, as it takes money to speculate, but this will always be.  In order to implement fair market practice, the rules of finance would have to be rewritten, and more importantly, the philosophy of economics would have to be justified by the adherence to nature, and what would constitute that the  doctrine conclude that what is in the best interest for the individual is in the best interest of the community.  Theoretically if everyone had a fair share of natural resources, like the nomadic tribes of old, then maybe we would only take what we need (yes there has always been war, but as an example, Native American tribes would go generations without spilling blood, and then many times in stead of a tribal war, only two men would fight, mano vs. mano, to settle the dispute).  People would first need to shed ego and whatnot, and even then, there would be speculators.  The best we can do is to try and uplift the local communities and remember that all is fair in love, and war exists in spite of love.

The dollar reaching point critical was inevitable as it is the basis for the fiat ponzi.  Gold, which was and by proxie is the underlying asset, is not up for grabs in physical, but only by loan.  This means the dollar is not a store of wealth, and therefore is at the whim of inflation.  Now past the point of critical maximum, the dollar has been pronounced dead on its arrival at the end of neo-Keynesian economics.  The fallacy that one can spend this fiat currencie to achieve success was to prop the King Dollar up for all to see, but then those who noticed saw it dead.  This is not the future; this happened.  Now the dollar will be buried.  Heretics may expect it to rise.  They will starve while they wait.

The dead dollar increased input costs because it took more dollars to purchase a given good.  The world turned until the good was food.  Food, the basis of humanity, is not up for negotiation.  Now the world will fight over the crumbs.  This and oil production has peaked.  The House of Saud's production peaked last year, and they being the swing producer are no longer able to offer a supply buffer.  Now the world descends into the backside of oil production.

The African Black Swan is a combination of all these things.  Africa had waited patiently on its just deserts for decades.  It put up with the establishments and the crushing poverty that was relegated to it, but drought and disease.  The tipping point was when food prices increased past critical.  I could elaborate on the establishment and the role of the dictator, but dictators rule over all lands, if it is the futile overlords of Japan, the figure head overlords of the Anglo-American Empires, or the absolute dictators of the Middle East and Africa.

Like the rest of the world, the dictation is trying to manipulate the people into accepting the old paradigm while thinking that it has changed for the better.  The oilgarchs recognize the revolution, and are trying to continue the old way.  Yet the world is very awake, the people have been lied to long enough to know magic exists within our hearts, and change comes from within.  Change is not a given, change is not to be accepted, but change is to be created.  Now like a true Whiteness, the birds descend on the lake of reality, adding even more swans to the fray of an ever crowded lake.  These swans call for real change, and with real change, an advantage of prosperity that has been discussed in theory, but has yet to be proven.  The change is at hand.  We the people are demanding it.

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