Saturday, May 7, 2011

Equities follow Gold

Next week, and maybe the next, may have equities pulling back.  The reason is because the trend for the last two years has had equities following gold and her sister metals.  Precious metals had a gigantic fall last week, and if they have not found support, it will send equity crashing.  If precious metals have found support, then equities should still pull back a little at least until they find support themselves.

With the volatility that is in the market, it is likely that the Dow washes around the middle of the 12k range for the rest of May.  Bernanke's bind is that his bond purchases rely on quantitative easing, and when he announces his plans, if it is a QE Light or Dark, it should spook the dollar into falling off of a cliff.  Until then, the dollar should rise a little more, and the Euro should fall a little too.

The dollar will likely peak up to DXY 76, and if so the Euro will trade at $1.39.  This in the next couple weeks.  Silver and oil will wash their new range which has oil trading from $95 to $102 and silver from $34 to $37.  Gold will stay steady in the range of $1490 to $1510, as it cares not which fiat leads the ponzi, as gold backs all fiat by proxy.  Central Banks use gold as a leverage point to facilitate their loans to one another.  The tell is that when gold pulls back it is because they have moved the metal monie from an asset to a reserve, and sometimes even to a liability.  When this happens, liquidity dries up.  When liquidity dries up, equity pulls back, because the major investors no longer have margin available for risk.

Come Bernanke's next childish remark about finance and economics, which he will make near the end of this round of quantitative easing, the market will capitulate back into its old trend of dumping dollars for real assets.  Until then, this new range will be tested.  The market makers love volatility, as it gives them the chance to buy low and sell high.  It now appears the fiat ponzi will survive May.

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