Wednesday, May 18, 2011

The Long Trend

The long trend shows commodities, led by the monie commodities, being in an up trend beginning with the tech crash.  Ten years down the road they have had only one severe correction; they could not get out from under the absolute collapse of all markets.  Considering how manipulated that crash was, with the Treasurie out right claiming martial law on the hands of what was thought to be a liquidity crisis, the fall of commodities was rather tepid, as they bottomed in the Fall of '08, where as the rest of the market bottomed the following Spring of '09.

Since then there has been an official recovery of the markets, because equity is up.  It seems that this is the only metric that matters to those that claim recovery, because it is the only one that has been cited.  Unemployment is still horribly high, there has been no growth in any sector besides commodities and equity, and at the same time, prices and inflation have risen dramatically.  This is a recovery that was not.

To put a stake in the recovery myth, when compared to dollar devaluation, equity is even at best.  This leaves commodities as the only gaining asset class.  It has been the commodity bull that has raged on.  This bull has only started, due to the fact that commodities are mostly finite resources.  Food production can increase, but only at the hand of perfect conditions and increases in technology, and neither of these examples are reliable.  The core commodities of technology, the four being gold, silver, platinum, and oil, are extremely finite, and three of the four are past peak production, with silver being the only one that has not.  Since the precious metals are the only assets that define monie by the requisite four definitions, they have the ultimate advantage in finance.  These are the main reasons that what has been termed the commodity bull is far from done running.

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